Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have triggered severe volatility in the global oil market

#Industry information ·2026-03-15 16:57:14

• The IEA launched the largest oil reserve release in history; oil prices fluctuated at a high level, and China suspended refined oil exports to ensure domestic supply
  
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• 1. IEA's Largest Release of Reserves and Supply Crisis in History
• • On March 11, the 32 member countries of the IEA unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, twice the amount released during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, with the main shares undertaken by the United States (172 million barrels), Japan (80 million barrels), and Germany (19.5 million barrels).

• • Due to the situation in the Middle East, global oil supply decreased by 8 million barrels per day, and the flow through the Strait of Hormuz sharply dropped by over 90%. The IEA significantly revised down its forecast for global supply growth in 2026 from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day.
  • The market is concerned that the release rate is limited (1.2-4 million barrels per day), making it difficult to fill a short-term gap of tens of millions of barrels.

  2. Extreme Fluctuations in International Oil Prices
  • At the close on March 14, Brent crude settled at $103.14 per barrel (up 2.55%), and WTI crude settled at $98.71 per barrel (up 3.11%), both having risen more than 40% since the beginning of the year.
  • On March 9, it had surged to $119.5 per barrel, and on March 10, it plummeted nearly 20% intraday, marking the largest single-day drop in four years, with the market experiencing severe volatility.
  • Iran stated it would not abandon revenge and threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz; combined with risks in the Mandeb Strait, about 32% of global maritime oil transport routes are under threat. 

  3. China Policy Adjustment: Suspension of Refined Oil Exports

  • According to Reuters on March 12, China immediately banned refined oil exports in March (covering gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, excluding bonded jet fuel) to ensure domestic fuel supply.
  • Earlier, refineries were required to stop signing new export contracts and negotiate the cancellation of already agreed shipping arrangements.
  • Domestic oil prices have seen four consecutive increases, with the largest increase of the year occurring at 24:00 on March 9. The price of 95-octane gasoline rose by 0.58 yuan per liter, making it about 29 yuan more expensive to fill a 50-liter tank.

  
  

  4. Industry Impact and Outlook

  • The escalation of the supply crisis has driven up global inflation expectations. According to Barclays' estimates, for every $10 increase in oil prices, the growth rate of the U.S. economy may decrease by 10-20 basis points.
  • Expectations for accelerated energy transition are strengthening, highlighting the cost and substitution advantages of coal-based chemical production. Domestic chemical companies are expected to capture overseas market demand.
  • The next domestic refined oil price adjustment window is March 23, with the market paying close attention to geopolitical developments and international oil price trends.